Regime Detection

Overview

Market regime detection is the foundation of VECTRA's adaptive behavior. Instead of applying the same strategy logic regardless of market conditions, VECTRA first classifies the market into one of 9 distinct states and then adapts every parameter accordingly.

The 9 Market Regimes

Regime	ADX Range	Characteristics
STRONG_TREND_UP	> 40, Bullish	Powerful uptrend, momentum strategies thrive
TREND_UP	25-40, Bullish	Clear uptrend, trend-following works well
WEAK_TREND_UP	20-25, Bullish	Emerging uptrend, use caution
RANGING	< 20	No trend, mean reversion strategies excel
WEAK_TREND_DOWN	20-25, Bearish	Emerging downtrend
TREND_DOWN	25-40, Bearish	Clear downtrend
STRONG_TREND_DOWN	> 40, Bearish	Powerful downtrend
VOLATILE	Any, High ATR ratio	High volatility, wide stops needed
TRANSITIONING	Regime changing	Uncertain, reduce exposure

Detection Methodology

The regime detector uses 5 primary inputs. Each input is evaluated and contributes to the regime classification.

1

ADX (Average Directional Index)

Trend strength measurement. ADX values are used to separate strong, moderate, weak, and non-trending regimes.

2

EMA Alignment

20/50/200 EMA ordering for direction. The relative ordering of short, medium, and long EMAs indicates bullish or bearish alignment and helps discriminate trend direction among trend regimes.

3

ATR Ratio

Current ATR vs. moving average ATR for volatility classification. This ratio is used to detect volatility regimes (e.g., Normal, High, Extreme).

4

RSI

Momentum and extreme detection. RSI is used for identifying overbought/oversold conditions and adjusting regime-specific thresholds.

5

Market Structure

HH/HL vs. LH/LL pattern analysis. Market structure (higher highs/higher lows vs. lower highs/lower lows) helps confirm directional regime classification.

Volatility Regimes

ATR Ratio	Classification
< 0.5	Ultra Low Volatility
0.5-0.8	Low Volatility
0.8-1.2	Normal Volatility
1.2-2.0	High Volatility
> 2.0	Extreme Volatility

Hysteresis (Anti-Flickering)

To prevent rapid regime switching that would cause erratic behavior, VECTRA uses hysteresis:

• A new regime must persist for 3 consecutive checks before it is accepted

• A history of the last 20 regime readings is maintained

• The current regime only changes after the threshold is met

This prevents a single noisy candle from causing a regime change.

Adaptive Parameter System

When the regime changes, all strategy parameters adapt.

TP/SL Adjustment by Regime

Regime	TP Multiplier	SL Multiplier
Strong Trend (ADX > 35)	×1.35	×1.0
Moderate Trend (ADX 25-35)	×1.15	×1.0
Ranging (ADX < 20)	×0.80	×0.90
Volatile (High ATR)	×1.0	×1.15

RSI Thresholds by Regime

Regime	Overbought	Oversold
Strong Trend	85	15
Trend	80	20
Weak Trend	78	22
Ranging	72	28
Volatile	75	25

Confidence Weights by Regime

Each confluence type receives different weight depending on regime (see Strategy Overview for the complete weight table).