Tiered Confidence

The Problem It Solves

When 6-7 independent data sources each give "mild caution" (×0.95, ×0.92, ×0.92, ×0.97, ×0.95, ×0.95), naive multiplication produces:

Compound erosion example

0.95 × 0.92 × 0.92 × 0.97 × 0.95 × 0.95 = 0.694 (31% erosion!)

A strong signal with 5 confluences (sigmoid confidence 0.80) becomes 0.555 — below the minimum threshold — and gets rejected. This is a LEGITIMATE signal where many independent sources give mild caution, not a single source giving strong contradiction.

The Solution

The Tiered Confidence system classifies each modifier as Soft, Hard, or Boost:

Type	Multiplier Range	Treatment
Boost	> 1.0	Applied with cap (max +18% total)
Soft	≥ 0.91	Mild caution — total capped at max 15% erosion
Hard	< 0.91	Strong contradiction — applied fully

Global Erosion Floors

Hard Contradictions	Maximum Total Erosion
0	15% (floor: 0.85)
1	24% (floor: 0.76)
2	32% (floor: 0.68)

Evidence Tiers

1

Tier 1 — AGGRESSOR

OI divergence + Taker flow + Whale flow

2

Tier 2 — STRUCTURAL

FVG/OB quality + HTF confirmation

3

Tier 3 — CONTEXT

BTC correlation + Portfolio correlation

4

Tier 4 — CONFLUENCE

Cross-strategy agreement

Expected Impact

• Rescues 20-30% of signals previously killed by compound erosion

• Profit Factor improvement: +0.1 to +0.2 (conservative estimate)

• Zero additional risk: only rescues signals with strong entry thesis